
Put another way, this means that there could be enough new supermarkets constructed in the decade ahead to cover 500 football pitches.
In a push described by Evolution Securities retail analyst Dave McCarthy as the 'biggest in the history of retailing' the nation's 'big four' food retailers are building or planning to build 1,600 supermarkets with a combined floor space of 44.4m sq ft - 7m sq ft more than Tesco's current vast store estate.
Such a move could also imperil moves to revive high streets across the country, where more than 25,000 shops have closed since the millennium.
And Yorkshire features heavily in the plans, where grocers are already building more than 1sq ft of new floorspace per person.
The figures have emerged through an analysis conducted by commercial property experts CBRE into all the planning applications submitted by supermarkets to local councils throughout the United Kingdom.
In projections that will surely alarm independent traders up and down the country, the report shows that, if all supermarket plans are approved in the next decade, UK supermarkets could expand by a quarter, up by 44.41million square feet from their current 171million square feet. This would produce a total covered area of 1,200 hectares (3,000 acres) and represents a rise of 54% on the amount planned just five years ago.
In its report, the CBRE said: 'The scramble for grocery space looks set to run and run not least because current economic conditions - combined with a dearth of jobs in more deprived areas - is forcing local authorities in the worst affected areas to be much more supportive of commercial development activity generally.
'With speculative development at a recessionary low, grocery development is often the only game left in town and could well remain so for a very lengthy period.'
Such a scramble would appear to be well under way with 3.88million square feet of new supermarkets currently under construction. Tesco alone already opens new UK shops at a rate of almost three a week. Britain's biggest retailer, with 2,700 stores, looks poised for an outlet in every postcode in the UK mainland after winning a hard-fought battle for planning permission for a new store in Harrogate. Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrisons are also winning planning permission for new outlets at a rate of one every working day.
The share of supermarkets in planned shopping developments has risen year on year from 25% in 2007 to 36% today with the result that more than 97% of UK grocery sales are now bleeped through the tills at supermarkets. This can only rise with superstore bosses gaining planning permission for another 21.45million square feet and proposing a further 19.08million.
And in an alarming trend for those seeking to restore the fortunes to ailing town centres and rundown shopping parades, supermarket bosses want more than 80% of the new space to be in out-of-town developments.
A study on the future of town centres by retail guru Mary Portas, backed by David Cameron, called recently for new controls: 'Many [high streets] are sickly, others are on the critical list and some now are dead,' she said after a seven-month investigation.
'They have reached a crisis point. Unless urgent action is taken much of Britain will lose, irretrievably, something that is fundamental to our society.
'I would stop it [supermarket expansion],' Portas said earlier this month. 'But to a certain extent the horse has bolted. We have let supermarkets do this.'
In her review, Miss Portas called for a change in planning rules to prioritise town-centre development over those on the edges of towns, or even by motorway junctions. She said planning permission for all large out-of-town shopping developments should be referred to ministers for scrutiny and approval.
On the threat posed by supermarket expansion, she said: 'What really worries me is that the big supermarkets don't just sell food any more, but all manner of things that people used to buy on the high street.
'My concern extends to the progressive sprawl of the supermarkets into needs-based services such as opticians and doctor's surgeries, which were once the exclusive preserve of the high street.'
Those worried about supermarkets' continuing expansion have been further alarmed by the heavy lobbying by the industry in favour of sweeping changes to planning law, with a draft copy of the National Planning Policy Framework being seen as giving a green light to much hugely damaging development, much of it in sprawling out-of-town developments of the type favoured for some supermarket construction.
Such doubts are dismissed by supermarket analysts, however: Clive Black, a retail analyst at Shore Capital, said Britain was 'lagging behind' its European cousins. 'Britain actually has one of the lowest per capita [supermarket] ratios in Europe,' he said. 'To say Britain is one big supermarket, or going to become one, is nonsensical.'
Black said retailers are simply providing for an expanding population, expected to hit 65 million by 2020, compared to 61 million today. 'Supermarkets and superstores are built for 20-30 years - we expect the buying of food in Britain to remain strong. The market outlook for food is actually quite robust in the UK, with growth of 4-5%.' He expects most of the growth to be in smaller and more local convenience stores and predicts most retailers will downscale their plans from the 44m sq ft of applications lodged.
Stephen Robertson of the British Retail Consortium supports such a view and said the expansion was 'modest' and brought investment, jobs, training and choice for customers.
Many doubts over the supermarkets' plans remain however, despite such assurances. Andrew Simms, a fellow of the New Economics Foundation thinktank author of Tescopoly, a book which charts Tesco's rise to dominate the high street, warns that 'unless the power of supermarkets is restrained they will continue to suffocate the life out of other shops.'
He added: 'The outstanding problem with retailing is that there is too much power in too few hands - and it's clearly going to get worse unless there is intervention from regulators.'
The chances of this happening, even if desirable, look slim in the current economic climate, in which councils are eager to give the go-ahead to high-profile openings that promise much in the way of instant payback, such as business rates and jobs. The losses happen more quietly and later, and those losing out have far less political muscle.
In 2008, the latest in a long series of Competition Commission inquiries recommended that planning rules should be changed to prevent any one supermarket gaining a monopoly in a particular area. Nothing was done to implement this by either the last Labour government or the Coalition and any change looks highly unlikely in this economic climate.
Recession or not, the march of the supermarkets could well turn into a sprint, and the latest reduced trading figures for some of the largest players are unlikely to be seen as anything more than a blip. Whether you view them as out-of-control bullies or fantastic places to shop - or possibly both - it could well be that in the next few years your theories about supermarkets are about to be tested to breaking point, and maybe beyond.
Supermarkets' Expansion Will Be 'Biggest in the History of Retailing'




